Illustrative image. Photo: VNA  

As Vietnam enters the Year of the Horse, many securities companies believe that the benchmark VN-Index sees an opportunity to extend its recovery rally after successfully testing key support levels and gradually re-establishing short-term equilibrium.

Following a significant correction, the VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) rebounded ahead of Tet (Lunar New Year), signalling a marked improvement in capital inflows.

The market closed the final trading week before the Tet holiday with a favourable technical recovery, regaining key levels above 1,800 points and the 20-day moving average (MA20).

This recovery reduces the risk of deeper post-holiday corrections, provided external factors remain stable.

However, the rebound has shown signs of divergence, leading analysts to forecast a likely tug-of-war as the benchmark VN-Index seeks to test the resistance zone around 1,850 points when trading resumes today.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at 1,850–1,860 points, while the 1,790-point threshold will serve as a critical support level in assessing supply and demand during market adjustments.

Despite increased liquidity, the market has yet to confirm a sustained upward trend. Continued monitoring of news developments and market reactions after the Tet holiday will be essential in assessing the durability of the recovery.

According to Kafi Securities, both quantitative and qualitative indicators point to increasingly selective capital flows in the stock market. Quantitative data shows regular liquidity increases, often reaching around 40 trillion VND (1.5 billion USD) per session, alongside a return of foreign net buying.
Post-Tet, the financial market is expected to enter a new phase combining optimistic sentiment with fresh policy expectations and updated corporate business plans.

Capital is increasingly flowing towards companies with solid fundamentals that have yet to record significant price gains, indicating a reassessment of corporate valuations, particularly among state-owned enterprises. This shift suggests that investment capital is moving to capture emerging opportunities.

Historical data provide an optimistic outlook for market performance after Tet. While trading activity typically slows before the holiday, markets have tended to rebound afterwards, supported by stronger indices and liquidity.

Data from VietstockFinance shows that over the past decade from 2016 to 2025, the VN-Index rose in eight out of ten instances within five to ten trading sessions following Tet, except in 2023 and the COVID-19 pandemic-affected year of 2020.

Experts at SSI Securities identified two potential catalysts for the stock market after Tet.

The first is Decree 57, aimed at restructuring the capital of 20 leading state-owned corporations. The second is the possibility of Vietnam being added to the MSCI watchlist in June, which could help trigger a new growth cycle for domestic equities.

The implementation of the KRX trading system also marks an important step forward, improving operational efficiency through new infrastructure capable of handling higher transaction volumes and supporting the development of internationally compliant financial products.

This development is expected to enhance market professionalism and attract greater foreign investment.

Supportive macroeconomic indicators are also likely to energise the market. The Vietnamese Government is targeting GDP growth of 10% in 2026, which may lead to further growth stimulus measures and improved capital flows into equities.

VNDirect Securities forecasts that, in the medium term, capital flows will strengthen and return to the market after the holiday, supporting the VN-Index and pushing it towards the next resistance zone near 1,940 points.

According to Huynh Anh Huy, director of Industry Analysis at Kafi Securities, market sentiment often turns positive after Tet. Coupled with the cultural practice of investing for good fortune, capital is expected to return as investors complete portfolio restructuring and adopt higher risk exposure./.